A live read on the U.S. real estate cycle — Recovery, Expansion, Hypersupply, Recession — using the institutional four-phase framework that REITs, developers, and capital allocators have used for decades.
The cycle, today
Demand exceeds available supply. Occupancy, rents, and property values rise as the market grows.
U.S. real estate · indicative
Reading
U.S. residential currently in Expansion · supply & demand fundamentals per Mueller four-phase modelVertical axis represents occupancy & demand relative to long-term average supply. The trough sits between Recession and Recovery; the peak sits between Expansion and Hypersupply.
AI market read
Current phase
Expansion
Confidence score
73%
Synthesized from inventory trends, pricing & absorption, interest-rate posture, and transaction activity across our active markets.
Probability of next state
The four phases
The cycle progresses Recovery → Expansion → Hypersupply → Recession, then back to Recovery. Each phase rewards a different posture.
Demand exceeds available supply. Occupancy, rents, and property values rise as the market grows.
Market indicators
Typical opportunities
Typical risks
Drivers we watch
These are the indicators that move our work — origination, transaction velocity, and underwriting.
Months of inventory
Supply vs. absorption balance
Median days on market
Demand velocity & buyer urgency
Housing starts & permits
New supply entering the pipeline
30-yr mortgage rate
Buyer affordability & refi appetite
Existing home sales
Realtor & lender volume
Price growth (YoY)
Appreciation pace vs. fundamentals
Latest, on the market
Refreshes every 15 min
Headlines aggregated from public newswires. Not investment advice.
However the cycle turns
Recovery, Expansion, Hypersupply, or Recession — the work doesn't change. Twenty-one day average close, ninety-eight percent on-time, every phase.